Sawai Man Singh Medical College
JAIPUR, JLN Marg, Jaipur-302004
- 27
- Departments
- 315
- 2025 AIQ allotments
- 328
- State quota · legacy estimate
- 643
- Legacy NMC intake · year unverified
Sanctioned seats by department · 2024–2026
Documented NMC sanctioned seats across matched PG branches: Not available → Not available → Not available. Total change not comparable. Partial coverage is not a complete college intake.
2025 seats refer to AY 2025–26 in the NMC notice dated 30 January 2026. 2026 seats refer to AY 2026–27 in the snapshot dated 29 September 2026. Equal values mean unchanged published intake. Pending increases are excluded from the 2026 snapshot.
For participating state government MD/MS/PG diploma seats, the indicative AIQ share is 50% of full sanctioned intake, across all categories. Odd totals need MCC’s allocation/roster; category and PwD splits are not inferred. Central/institutional, deemed and DNB pools have separate rules. Changing category, PwD, quota or round changes ranks only. Missing evidence stays unavailable.
| Department | Degree | 2024 · AY 24–25 | 2025 · AY 25–26 | 2026 · AY 26–27 | Estimated AIQ · 2025 → 2026 | 2026 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Radiodiagnosis | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Paediatrics | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Obstetrics & Gynaecology | MD/MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Dermatology, Venereology & Leprosy | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Orthopaedics | MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| General Surgery | MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Ophthalmology | MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Pathology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Forensic Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Respiratory Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Anaesthesiology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Emergency Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Psychiatry | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| ENT | MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Community Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Radiation Oncology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Geriatric Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Tropical Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Pharmacology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Transfusion Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Biochemistry | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Palliative Medicine | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Anatomy | MD/MS | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Microbiology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
| Physiology | MD | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not estimated | Not comparable |
Actual closing ranks · 2025 and 2024
Ranks below: All India Quota · OPEN · Round 1. Updated .
| Department | 2025 actual AIR | 2024 actual AIR | 2026 predicted AIR / confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD General Medicine | 439 | 455 | ≈ 400 Range: 300–600 Medium confidence |
| MD Radiodiagnosis | 289 | 206 | ≈ 300 Range: 100–400 Medium confidence |
| MD Paediatrics | 2,876 | 2,108 | ≈ 2,600 Range: 1,900–3,500 Medium confidence |
| MD/MS Obstetrics & Gynaecology | 3,404 | 2,523 | ≈ 3,100 Range: 2,300–4,100 Medium confidence |
| MD Dermatology, Venereology & Leprosy | 398 | 374 | ≈ 400 Range: 200–600 Low confidence |
| MS Orthopaedics | 3,657 | 2,399 | ≈ 3,200 Range: 2,400–4,300 Medium confidence |
| MS General Surgery | 2,450 | 1,913 | ≈ 2,300 Range: 1,700–3,000 Medium confidence |
| MS Ophthalmology | 4,967 | 4,211 | ≈ 4,700 Range: 3,500–6,300 Medium confidence |
| MD Pathology | 20,576 | 19,341 | ≈ 20,200 Range: 15,300–26,600 Medium confidence |
| MD Forensic Medicine | 34,987 | 37,568 | ≈ 35,800 Range: 27,200–47,200 Low confidence |
| MD Respiratory Medicine | 5,152 | 5,084 | ≈ 5,100 Range: 3,900–6,800 Medium confidence |
| MD Anaesthesiology | 11,836 | 12,230 | ≈ 12,000 Range: 9,100–15,800 Medium confidence |
| MD Emergency Medicine | 3,030 | 5,604 | ≈ 3,900 Range: 2,900–5,200 Low confidence |
| MD Psychiatry | 5,437 | 5,222 | ≈ 5,400 Range: 4,000–7,100 Medium confidence |
| MS ENT | 5,425 | 5,130 | ≈ 5,300 Range: 4,000–7,100 Medium confidence |
| MD Community Medicine | 30,727 | 36,548 | ≈ 32,700 Range: 24,800–43,000 Medium confidence |
| MD Radiation Oncology | 8,158 | 9,800 | ≈ 8,700 Range: 6,600–11,500 Low confidence |
| MD Geriatric Medicine | 7,813 | Not available | ≈ 7,800 Range: 5,900–10,300 Low confidence |
| MD Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation | 11,980 | 15,727 | ≈ 13,200 Range: 10,000–17,400 Low confidence |
| MD Tropical Medicine | Not available | Not available | Insufficient data for this exact seat |
| MD Pharmacology | 41,297 | 42,920 | ≈ 41,800 Range: 31,800–55,100 Medium confidence |
| MD Transfusion Medicine | 22,254 | 20,132 | ≈ 21,500 Range: 16,300–28,400 Low confidence |
| MD Biochemistry | 56,468 | 66,536 | ≈ 59,800 Range: 45,400–78,700 Medium confidence |
| MD Palliative Medicine | Not available | Not available | Insufficient data for this exact seat |
| MD/MS Anatomy | 59,527 | 55,606 | ≈ 58,200 Range: 44,200–76,600 Medium confidence |
| MD Microbiology | 44,267 | 42,958 | ≈ 43,800 Range: 33,300–57,700 Medium confidence |
| MD Physiology | 54,041 | 55,785 | ≈ 54,600 Range: 41,500–71,900 Low confidence |
Sources: MCC 2024–2025 actual allotments; NMC 2026–27 matrix; historical NMC source and coverage. Open branch details for exact MCC counselling seats, provenance and the prediction explanation.
Actual allotments by department · 2025
| Department | Degree | All India | Total | Open closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaesthesiology | MD | 37 | 37 | 23,167 |
| Obstetrics & Gynaecology | MD/MS | 35 | 35 | 4,994 |
| General Medicine | MD | 30 | 30 | 349 |
| General Surgery | MS | 22 | 22 | 4,883 |
| Orthopaedics | MS | 19 | 19 | 4,308 |
| Paediatrics | MD | 19 | 19 | 3,368 |
| Biochemistry | MD | 14 | 14 | 78,573 |
| Pathology | MD | 14 | 14 | 25,642 |
| Microbiology | MD | 12 | 12 | 61,452 |
| Radiodiagnosis | MD | 12 | 12 | 317 |
| Community Medicine | MD | 10 | 10 | 34,202 |
| ENT | MS | 9 | 9 | 4,806 |
| Pharmacology | MD | 9 | 9 | 55,529 |
| Psychiatry | MD | 9 | 9 | 5,831 |
| Respiratory Medicine | MD | 9 | 9 | 5,861 |
| Anatomy | MD/MS | 7 | 7 | 82,058 |
| Ophthalmology | MS | 7 | 7 | 7,882 |
| Radiation Oncology | MD | 7 | 7 | 7,519 |
| Dermatology, Venereology & Leprosy | MD | 6 | 6 | 398 |
| Forensic Medicine | MD | 6 | 6 | 45,938 |
| Transfusion Medicine | MD | 6 | 6 | 25,527 |
| Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation | MD | 5 | 5 | 30,687 |
| Physiology | MD | 5 | 5 | 58,839 |
| Palliative Medicine | MD | 3 | 3 | — |
| Emergency Medicine | MD | 1 | 1 | 13,743 |
| Geriatric Medicine | MD | 1 | 1 | 7,813 |
| Tropical Medicine | MD | 1 | 1 | 19,030 |
| Total | 315 | 315 | ||
Open closing is the deepest All India Rank allotted an Open (general merit) seat in that department in 2025, across every round including stray vacancy. Reserved-category and PwD seats close later — sometimes far later — so they are not mixed into this figure. A dash means no Open seat was allotted there that year.
2025 actual allotments, by quota and category
A quota and a category together make one competition, so they are listed separately rather than added up: an All India Quota Open seat and an SC seat in the same department close thousands of ranks apart, and so do the same category under two different quotas. Open a department to see its lines.
Branch research: seats, cutoffs, fees & stipend
Compare past rounds with 2026 estimates. Amounts are shown only with scoped sources.
- MD · Anaesthesiology
- MD/MS · Anatomy
- MD · Biochemistry
- MD · Community Medicine
- MD · Dermatology, Venereology & Leprosy
- MS · ENT
- MD · Emergency Medicine
- MD · Forensic Medicine
- MD · General Medicine
- MS · General Surgery
- MD · Geriatric Medicine
- MD · Microbiology
- MD/MS · Obstetrics & Gynaecology
- MS · Ophthalmology
- MS · Orthopaedics
- MD · Paediatrics
- MD · Palliative Medicine
- MD · Pathology
- MD · Pharmacology
- MD · Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation
- MD · Physiology
- MD · Psychiatry
- MD · Radiation Oncology
- MD · Radiodiagnosis
- MD · Respiratory Medicine
- MD · Transfusion Medicine
- MD · Tropical Medicine
AnaesthesiologyMD37 seats · 6 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 15 | 11,836 | 23,167 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 10 | 17,028 | 21,557 |
| All India | SC | 5 | 32,097 | 42,418 |
| All India | EWS | 3 | 15,750 | 21,198 |
| All India | ST | 3 | 43,777 | 61,640 |
| All India | Open (PwD) | 1 | — | 1,87,082 |
Obstetrics & GynaecologyMD/MS35 seats · 7 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 13 | 3,404 | 4,994 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 9 | 6,417 | 7,788 |
| All India | SC | 5 | 20,522 | 23,814 |
| All India | EWS | 3 | 5,338 | 6,140 |
| All India | ST | 3 | 26,544 | 20,774 |
| All India | OBC-NCL (PwD) | 1 | 1,13,644 | 1,13,644 |
| All India | Open (PwD) | 1 | 73,746 | 1,67,219 |
General MedicineMD30 seats · 8 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 11 | 439 | 349 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 7 | 1,234 | 1,329 |
| All India | SC | 4 | 7,424 | 5,708 |
| All India | EWS | 3 | 1,054 | 1,054 |
| All India | ST | 2 | 8,475 | 18,125 |
| All India | OBC-NCL (PwD) | 1 | 91,927 | 91,927 |
| All India | Open (PwD) | 1 | 64,933 | 64,933 |
| All India | SC (PwD) | 1 | — | 1,39,882 |
General SurgeryMS22 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 9 | 2,450 | 4,883 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 6 | 5,249 | 8,774 |
| All India | SC | 3 | 16,999 | 20,820 |
| All India | EWS | 2 | 4,100 | 6,008 |
| All India | ST | 2 | 18,986 | 43,732 |
OrthopaedicsMS19 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 7 | 3,657 | 4,308 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 6 | 7,459 | 4,929 |
| All India | SC | 3 | 20,660 | 27,861 |
| All India | ST | 2 | 29,625 | 39,152 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 3,979 | 7,657 |
PaediatricsMD19 seats · 7 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 8 | 2,876 | 3,368 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 5 | 4,656 | 4,075 |
| All India | SC | 2 | 9,675 | 16,773 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 3,167 | 6,128 |
| All India | Open (PwD) | 1 | 1,20,370 | 81,646 |
| All India | SC (PwD) | 1 | — | 2,12,999 |
| All India | ST | 1 | — | 24,990 |
BiochemistryMD14 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 5 | 56,468 | 78,573 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 65,671 | 78,747 |
| All India | SC | 3 | 94,532 | 1,11,738 |
| All India | ST | 2 | 1,09,986 | 1,28,361 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 76,639 | 1,01,420 |
PathologyMD14 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 6 | 20,576 | 25,642 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 25,650 | 25,650 |
| All India | EWS | 2 | 34,936 | 37,893 |
| All India | SC | 2 | 42,418 | 57,687 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 65,936 | 49,130 |
MicrobiologyMD12 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 5 | 44,267 | 61,452 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 51,024 | 67,036 |
| All India | SC | 2 | 77,181 | 1,07,714 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 62,582 | 87,963 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 80,028 | 1,33,027 |
RadiodiagnosisMD12 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 5 | 289 | 317 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 631 | 674 |
| All India | SC | 2 | 4,574 | 4,574 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 423 | 423 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 4,658 | 9,657 |
Community MedicineMD10 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 37,274 | 45,289 |
| All India | Open | 3 | 30,727 | 34,202 |
| All India | SC | 2 | 56,474 | 53,137 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 42,432 | 42,432 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 79,912 | 1,01,277 |
ENTMS9 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 12,777 | 13,290 |
| All India | Open | 3 | 5,425 | 4,806 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 12,335 | 15,180 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 22,607 | 25,238 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 40,418 | 40,418 |
PharmacologyMD9 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 4 | 41,297 | 55,529 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 50,071 | 62,746 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 78,324 | 63,835 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 57,151 | 57,151 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 83,255 | 2,10,563 |
PsychiatryMD9 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 4 | 5,437 | 5,831 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 3 | 10,837 | 10,716 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 5,832 | 10,462 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 13,424 | 13,424 |
Respiratory MedicineMD9 seats · 6 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 3 | 5,152 | 5,861 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 7,267 | 7,302 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 6,016 | 10,322 |
| All India | OBC-NCL (PwD) | 1 | — | 2,17,567 |
| All India | Open (PwD) | 1 | 90,963 | 1,86,651 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 21,032 | 21,032 |
AnatomyMD/MS7 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 3 | 59,527 | 82,058 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 74,683 | 87,067 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 87,963 | 1,81,566 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 1,14,503 | 1,40,430 |
OphthalmologyMS7 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 3 | 4,967 | 7,882 |
| All India | EWS | 2 | 10,322 | 10,998 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 1 | 9,916 | 9,916 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 10,659 | 10,659 |
Radiation OncologyMD7 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 12,471 | 12,074 |
| All India | Open | 2 | 8,158 | 7,519 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 10,642 | 10,642 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 36,008 | 37,314 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 26,366 | 40,149 |
Dermatology, Venereology & LeprosyMD6 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 780 | 780 |
| All India | Open | 2 | 398 | 398 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 454 | 1,051 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 7,578 | 7,578 |
Dermatology, Venereology & Leprosy closing ranks at every college
Forensic MedicineMD6 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 44,797 | 46,709 |
| All India | Open | 2 | 34,987 | 45,938 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 46,579 | 78,324 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 73,503 | 73,503 |
Transfusion MedicineMD6 seats · 5 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | SC | 2 | 51,971 | 72,915 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 41,583 | 76,639 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 1 | 24,487 | 53,942 |
| All India | Open | 1 | 22,254 | 25,527 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 62,376 | 93,192 |
Physical Medicine & RehabilitationMD5 seats · 4 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 2 | 11,980 | 30,687 |
| All India | EWS | 1 | 12,883 | 12,883 |
| All India | OBC-NCL | 1 | 19,908 | 34,978 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 42,169 | 55,398 |
Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation closing ranks at every college
PhysiologyMD5 seats · 3 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | OBC-NCL | 2 | 78,747 | 68,584 |
| All India | Open | 2 | 54,041 | 58,839 |
| All India | SC | 1 | 85,827 | 1,17,793 |
Palliative MedicineMD3 seats · 3 lines
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | EWS | 1 | — | 34,467 |
| All India | SC | 1 | — | 58,741 |
| All India | ST | 1 | 47,230 | 52,508 |
Emergency MedicineMD1 seat · 1 line
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 1 | 3,030 | 13,743 |
Geriatric MedicineMD1 seat · 1 line
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 1 | 7,813 | 7,813 |
Tropical MedicineMD1 seat · 1 line
| Quota | Category | Seats | After round 1 | Final closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All India | Open | 1 | — | 19,030 |
A dash under “after round 1” means that line was not allotted in round one — it opened in a later round or in stray vacancy, which is where its final closing rank comes from.
What this does and does not cover
- Where the seats go. NMC recognises 643 sanctioned MD/MS seats here. MCC allotted 315 of them through the All India Quota in 2025, which leaves about 328 filled through Rajasthan’s own counselling — the domicile quota, on its own portal, under its own rules and reservation. That remainder is subtraction, not a published figure: the two sources are a year apart, so a college whose intake changed between them will be a little out. It also has 250 MBBS seats, which are NEET UG rather than NEET PG. The 110 DM and MCh seats are filled through NEET SS, a separate exam.
- MCC counselling only — the state quota is not here. In a government college the sanctioned PG seats are split in half: 50% go to the All India Quota that MCC allots, and 50% to the state’s own counselling for candidates with that state’s domicile. The 315 All India Quota seats above are therefore roughly half the picture, and a comparable number again is filled through Rajasthan’s counselling authority, on its own portal, under its own rules. We do not hold those figures, so we do not print a number for them.
- Allotted, not sanctioned. These are seats that went to candidates in 2025 counselling. A seat left vacant through every round never appears in an allotment report.
- One year. 2025 is the most recent counselling parsed. Departments and seat counts move between years.
- Sanctioned intake is NMC’s, from its College and Course Search for AY 2026-27, recorded there as “SMS Medical College, Jaipur” (RJ/045/G/1). The two sources share no identifier, so they are joined on name, state and city; this match scored 0.95 of 1. A college we could not match confidently shows no sanctioned figure rather than a guessed one.
More NEET PG colleges in Rajasthan
- JAWAHAR LAL NEHRU MEDICAL COLLEGE
24 departments125 seats125 AIQ - Ravindra Nath Tagore Medical College, Udaipur
22 departments112 seats112 AIQ - Dr. Sampurnanand Medical College (SNMC), JODHPUR
24 departments106 seats106 AIQ - Sardar Patel Medical College, Bikaner
22 departments101 seats101 AIQ - Government Medical College Kota
21 departments94 seats94 AIQ - JHALAWAR MEDICAL COLLEGE
14 departments39 seats39 AIQ - RUHS COLLEGE OF MEDICAL SCIENCES
17 departments30 seats30 AIQ - Government Medical College
8 departments20 seats20 AIQ - SJP Medical College, Bharatpur
5 departments11 seats11 AIQ - ESIC Medical College & Hospital
8 departments10 seats10 AIQ
All NEET PG colleges in Rajasthan, with seats by specialty and the state’s closing-rank ranges.
Can you get a seat at Sawai Man Singh Medical College?
This directory summarises recorded allotments. Published matrices, fees and stipends are available through the branch research links above. Open the rank predictor and enter your rank and category to see which of these departments are in reach, with a calibrated chance on each.