How the NEET PG rank prediction works

Every figure comes from the counselling allotment PDFs published by the Medical Counselling Committee. Those are lists of who was allotted what: rank, quota, college, course, seat category and candidate category, for each round. We parse them in full — no sampling, no manual transcription.

Currently loaded: 1,46,196 allotments across 2,167 colleges and 100 courses.

• 2025 Round 126,869 allotments
• 2025 Round 220,785 allotments
• 2025 Round 318,669 allotments
• 2025 Stray Vacancy2,782 allotments
• 2024 Round 124,649 allotments
• 2024 Round 313,991 allotments
• 2024 Stray Vacancy2,314 allotments
• 2023 Round 215,184 allotments
• 2022 Round 120,953 allotments

For each combination of college, course, quota and seat category we take the deepest rank that was actually allotted that seat. Two versions matter and we keep both: the round-one closing rank, which is what it took to get the seat immediately, and the final closing rank across every round including stray vacancy, which is what it took to get the seat at all. They are far apart — later rounds routinely reach several times deeper — so a predictor that quotes only one of them is answering a different question than the one you asked.

Last year's closing rank is not this year's. We measure the shift directly: for every seat that appears in two consecutive years of complete counselling, how much did its closing rank move? The median of those moves is the drift, and how much they vary is the uncertainty. Both are measured per round, because they differ sharply by round.

A projected closing rank is a centre, not a wall. The percentage is the probability your rank lands inside the band around it, computed on a log scale — being 500 ranks short of a cutoff at 2,000 is a serious gap, while the same 500 at 90,000 is noise.

The width of that band is fitted, not chosen. We hold out half the seats, fit on the other half, and pick the width that best predicts what actually happened. On held-out data the result is well calibrated: across every probability band, the seats we call n% likely come in close to n% of the time, within a few points, at a Brier score of 0.09 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

• This is MCC counselling only — All India Quota, deemed and central universities, and DNB. State counselling runs separately with its own cutoffs and is not covered.
• The seat matrix changes. New colleges and new seats appear each year, and a seat that did not exist last year cannot have a closing rank.
• Where a score is entered instead of a rank, the score-to-rank step is an approximation from published rank analyses — NBEMS publishes no official table. Enter your actual rank if you have it.
• A cutoff is the outcome of how thousands of other candidates filled their preferences. It can move for reasons no model can see.